Pro Football Hall of Fame voters charged with selecting the honorees for 2014 may think they made their job easier by selecting Cris Carter as part of the 2013 class. But the strong first-year candidacy of retired Colts wide receiver Marvin Harrison means they’ll be trying yet again to break a logjam at that position.
Carter emerged as the first of three solid candidates – Andre Reed and Tim Brown being the others – who seemed to cancel each other out for years before the 2013 class was announced.
Who they’ll choose between the trio of Harrison, Brown and Reed is just one of the questions that the panel will face as another strong group becomes eligible for the first time.
So who joins senior candidates Ray Guy and Claude Humphrey as the 15 finalists who’ll be debated before the Super Bowl? Then who will the committee ultimately honor with gold jackets in Canton, Ohio next August?
A guess at the 2014 class starts with a look at the 2013 finalists and who were ultimately not selected to the Hall’s 2013 class. Those who survived the cut down from 15 to 10 were Michael Strahan, Jerome Bettis, Charles Haley, Andre Reed and Aeneas Williams.
I go back and forth on Bettis’ qualifications at times, given that for the last few years of his career he was really a short yardage and goal line complement to guys like Willie Parker. But he did have six consecutive 1,000-yard seasons, make six Pro Bowls and finish his career 13,662 rushing yards, which still ranks him sixth all-time. Strahan, I am guessing, missed out because the voters selected Warren Sapp instead. The other three are multi-time finalists. So let’s start with the assumption that all five of these guys will rejoin at least the round of 15.
The five candidates who made finalist status but did not crack the final 10 were Tim Brown, Will Shields, Kevin Greene and two owners, Ed DeBartolo and Art Modell. Let’s start with Shields. There probably isn’t a current day candidate out there that I think more warrants induction than him. In addition to the fact that he played the glory-less position of guard (where even Randall McDaniel had to wait three years for election), he’s had the unfortunate bad luck to be eligible in the same years that Willie Roaf and Dermontti Dawson were selected in 2012 and Larry Allen and Jonathan Ogden made it in 2013. Shields will get inducted and, with McDaniel as a barometer, I think this is his year.
Of the other five, I think Strahan and Brown are locks to make it back to the level of 15. I think DeBartolo has a shot. Modell, on the other hand, remains a polarizing figure whose contributions to the game are overshadowed by his decision to move the Browns to Baltimore. His candidacy likely was helped along last year due to his death. I think the momentum is going to stall.
Other guys who made various semifinalist and finalist lists over the last couple years include Roger Craig, Steve Atwater, Clay Matthews, Paul Tagliabue, Terrell Davis and George Young for the 2012 class and Don Coryell, Joe Jacoby, Albert Lewis, John Lynch and Atwater again last year.
The Hall of Fame voters have repeatedly ignored the safety position despite the presence of several intriguing candidates in recent years. I have to think that at least one of Atwater or Lynch will get in eventually. First-year candidate Rodney Harrison always had a strong, albeit also a dirty, reputation, but I was surprised to see he had only two Pro Bowls and two First Team All Pro awards to his credit. He waits for now and probably longer. Atwater, with his 8/2 profile, has been waiting longer than Lynch, who has a 9/2. I’ll put the former Bronco in before the former Buc/Bronco – even though last year I stuck Lynch in as my surprise inductee.
What about first year guys?
The group of first-year eligible players for the 2014 class is strong, but not as strong as in some recent years. Derrick Brooks is the strongest newcomer, with 11 Pro Bowls and five First Team All Pro awards to his credit. He’ll easily bypass any politicking and head directly to the final day of voting.
There’s been some debate as to whether or not Walter Jones should be eligible for this class due to his having spent the 2009 season in injured reserve. The decision makers say he is, so his 9/4 profile with Seattle make him another top contender.
Marvin Harrison got himself into some legal troubles as his career was winding down. The Colts receiver has kept a relatively low profile for the five years since he left the game,
And Tony Dungy, the humble and successful Tampa and Indy coach who won a Super Bowl with the Colts, also makes the list. Pundits seem to have taken Dungy’s claims that he won’t return to coaching, so I’m going to say that gives him a leg up over a potential return Hall candidate, Bill Cowher, who still pops up from time to time as a possible replacement when jobs open up.
Linebacker Zach Thomas rounds out the best of the first-year candidates. I think he faces an uphill battle. He may be a solid candidate in years down the line, but with Brooks as a virtual lock and several returning linebackers or linebacker/defensive end hybrids, my feeling is he has to wait awhile.
With thanks to this Bleacher Report article for augmenting this list, other first timers whose cases are slightly less strong include Shaun Alexander, Willie Anderson, Warrick Dunn, Sam Madison and Willie McGinest.
So where is our list at?
That leaves us with 13 finalists so far:
Atwater
Bettis
Brooks
Brown
Dungy
Greene
Haley
Harrison
Jones
Reed
Shields
Strahan
Williams
DeBartolo has now been a finalist two years in a row and momentum seems to be building for the former owner of the 49ers, whose reputation seems to be on the mend after his felony issues. I’ll take him as number 14. That leaves six offensive candidates, six defensive players and two coach/contributors. So the final nominee could come from anywhere.
Of candidates who have made a final 15 list in the last six years (thank you again to the Bleacher Report link), Tagliabue and Reed are the only ones who were finalists in 2008 and 2009 who have not yet been inducted. Reed remains on our list. Tagliabue’s momentum has lagged. In 2010, Brown, Haley, Reed and 49ers running back Roger Craig were finalists. The first three remain on our list. Craig has otherwise never gotten a lot of love from voters.
The uninducted finalists from 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 all remain on our list, save for Modell, who we’ve already decided is an unlikely returnee. So that opens this list up to a potential surprise candidate – maybe a Karl Mecklenburg, who is a Zoneblitz favorite for his years with the Minnesota Gophers and his willingness to do an interview with the site a couple years ago.
But I’m thinking it’s going to be hard to not recognize John Lynch for his expansive resume. He might not make the Hall this year – or even ever. But his profile remains great. And, after a flip of the coin, we’ll call him the final member of the 15.
So, who gets in?
To me, Brooks, Jones and Marvin Harrison probably have the strongest case for first-ballot consideration, though my best guess is that only Brooks gets in right away. Harrison and Jones are stuck in position groups with other strong candidates who have waited awhile. Brooks is too, but his resume outpaces.
So, here it is – our best guesses for the class of 2014:
Andy | Tony |
Derrick Brooks | Derrick Brooks |
Michael Strahan | Michael Strahan |
Will Shields | Will Shields |
Andre Reed | Andre Reed |
Aeneas Williams | Tony Dungy |
What’s our track record?
For what it’s worth, last year I got three of the five modern-era candidates correct. Tony got two. How are we going to do this year? Tell us below.
If Bill Parcells was not selected as a coach when a 1st time nominee, Tony Dungy with one SB is not getting in that quick, in fact coaches never have an easy path so I could see a 2-5 year wait for Dungy, maybe even longer given the continued quality of the players modern pool. Otherwise I think both of you have solid and respectable picks.
Personally I am going to stick with Brooks, Strahan, Shields, Reed and Haley, but if history is any indication getting three or four correct might be my best chance! (it could be a real toss up among Haley, Bettis, and Williams for my fifth and final slot).
And thanks for the well developed and presented analysis and discussion on the 2014 finalists, certainly way better then you are going to find on other blogs or websites
Paul, I agree on Dungy, hence the disagreement with my brother. We both had some trouble with the fifth spot. I debated between Williams, Haley, Kevin Greene and a couple others. I think there is a strong likelihood that we’re all wrong and the committee throws a curveball.
I also debated between Reed and Tim Brown. Reed has generally fared better, but I’ve long felt Brown was just as strong a candidate.
Well I think we are pretty strong with Brooks and Strahan; also will be either Shields or Jones but again I am confident we have that choice correct as well with Shields; real uncertainly is with, Reed (over Brown) with SBs the difference maker there, and really with trying to sort out between Haley, Williams and Bettis (If Haley is not getting in due to Humphrey and Strahan as pass rushers, Greene is also out) – those two slots scream HOF voter curveballs.
I’m not sold on Dungy either–if he gets in on the first try, it will be as much for his reputation as an overall good guy, and for how well he got along with the media.
I have had trouble with Brown/Reed all along–always thought Brown was better, but Reed has consistently done better when it comes to election Saturday.
I think Haley’s reputation with the media, and his reputation as a malcontent mercenary work against him. They may hold off as long as possible with him.
I’d like to see Aeneas Williams get in–especially since I think I had him in his first or second year in my predictions–but seems to have been tough going for him his first few tries.
Good analysis. Doubt very much that Tony Dungy is elected first ballot, but my guess is he gets voted in down the road a good ways. My guess is Andy’s most likely got it right on the five to be elected.
bachslunch, off topic…..I noticed you’re a member at PFRA. What’s up with getting posting privileges there? I signed up for an account a while back (under the name Paladin) but I’m still waiting for final verification (whatever that means) along with thousands of other people. It looks like they haven’t let anyone in since April. They’ve got a dozen or so pages of members going back to 2007 followed by several hundred pages of people awaiting verification from the past few months. Unless there’s been a recent huge spike in traffic I’m guessing they purge the new signups every so often. I also guess they want to keep things exclusive, but I was curious about what they base their decisions on. Are they even taking new members? Do they just come in and pick a few at random every several months?
Rasputin, I have had an account there for some time and am able to post at their website, though I’m not a joined-up member of the PFRA (I don’t have access to the latest editions of Coffin Corner and the like). No idea what’s going on with the posting privileges situation over there. I’d contact Ken Crippen over there directly if it’s possible to do so and ask him about it. Good luck!
Thanks. Yeah, I was hoping the posting membership was different from the paid PFRA membership, as I only had in interest in contributing to the forums there. It’s not a huge deal though. I was just curious about how things worked. If I get time at some point I might try to send the admin an email or something.
Count me as another who likes Andy’s selection and wouldn’t be surprised if all 5 are elected next year. I mentioned on another thread that I would go with Brooks and Strahan as my two bankers, then a Wide Receiver (Reed is the favourite over Brown), an Offensive Lineman (tossup between Shields and Jones, with a slight edge to Shields), with the fifth spot really wide open between Aeneas Williams, Jerome Bettis, Charles Haley and a second candidate at both OL and WR.
Dungy’s chances for 2014 look remote when you consider only 4 coaches have been a 1st ballot choice since 1970; Lombardi, Landry, Noll and Shula. Even Bill Walsh had to wait until the 4th attempt.
I am beginning to think that with DEs Strahan and Humphrey, Haley may get left out in favor of Williams or Bettis in 2014. But 2015 and 2016 have no strong DE candidates so Haley would easily fit in one of those years (along with other 2013 and 2014 remaining finalists as 2015 and 2016 are not deep for likely 1st year elections, only Seau in 2015 and Favre in 2016, I have no idea about quick election prospects for Kurt Warner).
Paul. We corresponded in the last few days where you posted all the first time eligibles for 2014-18 and I responded by suggesting Brian Urlacher should be added for 2018. Do you know which thread it was? I can’t find it and it’s doing my head in. I know it is staring me in the face.
How much of a realistic chance is there of Humphrey getting shot down a second time? Does anybody know how close he was in 2009?
Corey the HOF never releases the actual vote totals so all we know is that he did not receive the required 80%. Since the seniors are voted on first and separate they are not subject to rounds of cut downs from 15 to 10 to 5 like the moderns are, seniors get one vote yes/no. Although there is a chance he gets voted down I think this year he gets in as clearly the senior committee is willing to push hard and make a strong case for him – and many of the HOF voters will give the seniors committee support due to their work and efforts to get down to 2 senior candidates.
I think the vote total should be released so that way I think opinions can be formulated better.
I’m ok with Humphrey getting in, but I really and truly hope it’s Ray Guy’s turn this year. Hopefully he meets the required 80% but I can picture it being an obstacle for sure.
Yes there have been plenty of calls to release the totals and even allow the voters to publicly state their votes. I think Humphrey gets in, but I agree it would be major milestone to have a punter/special team player get over the 80% level and get voted in as only one pure kicker is in the HOF. This election will clearly set the future for any consideration of other kickers, punters and special team players.
I’d go further, Corey. I think the selectors’ votes should be made public. Secret ballots are meant to protect regular people, not ultra privileged “representatives” with awesome power and damn little accountability.
I’m on the fence about the selectors’ votes being mad public. I don’t care that much, although when I look at baseball and I ask myself how someone like Jayson Stark could vote for someone ties. However, I’m more concerned about how much percentage a player receives than who made up that percentage.
Here’s the thing though: As huge of a step this is with Guy being selected, keep in mind he is voted on separately. Sure, he was chosen over many other seniors and rightfully so, but what would be really historic would be if the committee this February gave Morten Andersen his well deserved bust and thus selecting him over an offensive or defensive player. I think Mort is going to have to wait, which is a shame, but I hope the committee does the right thing and puts Guy in.
how about don coryell for 2014?
Given the depth of the remaining 2013 finalists, and a few solid first time players in 2014 and future years, I think it is going to be really hard for any coach or contributor to get elected over the next several years.
As has been suggested and discussed before – here and in many other places – there really needs to be a separate category and election process (like the current arrangement for seniors), even if it means raising the limit to 8 (with the 8th slot only for consideration of a coach/contributor)
The modern era preliminary list for 2014 is announced tomorrow on NFL Network at 10pm EST.
yes they will discuss the newly eligible canidates as well as the returning ones also
I do not get really interested in the 120+ preliminary list, as discussion can really get started with the 25 semi-finalists in November. There will be no big surprises among the new and returning candidates on the preliminary nor any insight as to how they will factor in during the cutdown to 25.
The 2014 modern era list. Still no Corey Dillon, Neil Smith, Leslie O’Neal, Deron Cherry or Richmond Webb, while the Ken Harvey Fan Club is still going strong.
http://www.profootballhof.com/enshrinement/2013/9/12/2014-modern-era-nominees/
What first-year-eligible candidates will make Hall of Fame? By Gregg Rosenthal
http://www.nfl.com/halloffame/story/0ap1000000242961/article/what-firstyeareligible-candidates-will-make-hall-of-fame
exactly right boknows34. now what 25 semifinalists will be part of the second voting process for the 2014 class?
25 semifinalists, my initial list:
Steve Atwater
Jerome Bettis
Derrick Brooks
Tim Brown
Don Coryell
Roger Craig
Terrell Davis
Edward DeBartolo, Jr.
Tony Dungy
Kevin Greene
Charles Haley
Marvin Harrison
Walter Jones
Clay Matthews
Karl Mecklenburg
Art Modell
Andre Reed
Steve Sabol
Will Shields
Michael Strahan
Paul Tagliabue
Steve Tasker
Aeneas Williams
Ron Wolf
George Young
The next 50 HOFers (missed this story when it first was posted in early August, but makes for some interesting reading including very suspect predications!)
http://www.nfl.com/halloffame/story/0ap1000000226342/article/michael-strahan-charles-haley-headline-next-50-hall-of-famers
Paul, that was an interesting read. Some of the classes getting out a few years are more than speculative, but there are a lot of good names on that list … and some omissions. Probably generated a lot of pageviews though. His list of senior candidates was disappointing. A bunch of really deserving guys aren’t included, including Mick Tingelhoff, who has become my own personal favorite candidate in recent months.
Paul’s list of semi-finalists has an excellent chance of being very similar to the one that will be announced on November 27th. From that initial list of 25 candidates I would expect perhaps 22 or 23 to be announced as semi-finalists. John Lynch and Morten Andersen were semi-finalists for the Class of 2013 and I would expect to see both of them named again.
Elliott Harrison’s list was updated yesterday as he initially had Don Coryell as his Seniors pick (Coryell is on the modern era list). I’m also not sure why he has Claude Humphrey as his Seniors selection in 2020 but didn’t include him in his 2014 Class. The 2021 Class looked weak apart from Champ Bailey.
Saw Paul’s two links to HoF articles — thanks for posting.
Clearly, the 2014 “class” was posted before the Senior announcements in the “Next 50” article, and Don Coryell isn’t eligible via this route anyway. Not sure he’ll get elected regardless, though his chances might improve a little if a dedicated coach/contributor slot becomes a reality. Also don’t see Marvin Harrison leapfrogging Andre Reed or Tim Brown. For the rest, Kurt Warner is no guarantee of being “first ballot” in 2015 and I don’t see Orlando Pace as “first ballot” either (though both will get in), Julius Peppers and Reggie Wayne and Brian Dawkins and Troy Polamalu and Terrell Owens strike me as HoF-ers but not quickly so, Lance Briggs seems borderline but possible (ditto Terrell Suggs who wasn’t mentioned), John Lynch and Eddie DeBartolo will have a tough time getting in, and Brian Waters probably isn’t getting in at all (certainly not ahead of Alan Faneca, who wasn’t mentioned). The Senior choices seem to be a mix of good choices (Howley, Harris, Gradishar) and less likely ones (Karras, Stabler), and omits some probable nominees (Tingelhoff, Meador, Robinson). And Dick Stanfel probably doesn’t get nominated again after two refusals (same with Humphrey if he is turned down again).
Re the other article, agree that Harrison, Walter Jones, and Derrick Brooks are getting in at some point, but only Tony Dungy of the three coaches he cited definitely makes it in someday. Also think Zach Thomas has a pretty good shot at election, though not quickly. Agreed that the rest don’t have much chance.
Brooks
Strahan
Shields
These are the only three that I think for sure get in this year.
The next two best for me are Harrison and Jones but I don’t think there first ballot inductees. They won’t put in Reed or Brown over Harriosn this year and they shouldn’t. I like Haley a lot but they won’t put him and Strahan the same class.
Atwater has a strong case for me but he’s still down the road induction wise and Coryell is an all time fav of mine but sadly the creator of “Air-Coryell” probably is never getting in. “Air-Coryell” will live forever and Coryell’s legacy should as well in the HOF.
I would vote NO on Debartolo, Craig and Bettis as HOF’s. I’m 50/50 on TD and Greene as HOF’s and believe Tags, Williams and Dungy should make it in the future, just not this year.
As I posted earlier, I vote NO on Humphrey and Guy, but one will probably make it. My guess is Humphrey gets in and Guy will be voted out.